China's Copper Cathode Imports Surge MoM and YoY in October, Non-Registered Share Declines [SMM Analysis]

In October 2024, China imported 359,372 mt of copper cathode, up 11.4% MoM and 7.7% YoY, reaching the highest level of the year. The opening of the import window in September provided opportunities for October imports, but the share of non-registered imports declined to 57.37%. According to SMM data, in October, the import of non-registered copper cathode was 206,200 mt, with the main reduction compared to September coming from Russia and Kazakhstan.

From January to October 2024, the total import of non-registered copper cathode was 1.8583 million mt, accounting for 61.77% of the total copper cathode imports (3.0082 million mt). Excluding the registered brands from certain countries, the non-registered share is expected to remain above 50%.

On November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued Announcement No. 15 of 2024, stating the following adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for products such as aluminum semis: 1. The export tax rebate for aluminum semis, copper semis, and chemically modified animal, vegetable, or microbial oils and fats will be canceled. 2. The export tax rebate rate for certain refined oil products, PV, batteries, and some non-metallic mineral products will be reduced from 13% to 9%. 3. This announcement will take effect on December 1, 2024. The applicable export tax rebate rate for the listed products will be determined by the export date indicated on the customs declaration form.

As the year-end copper cathode long-term contract negotiations are underway, the cancellation of the export tax rebate for copper semis is expected to affect the proportion of domestic and foreign long-term contracts signed by downstream enterprises in 2025. However, according to an SMM survey, this policy mainly impacts exports under the "Ordinary Trade" method and has little effect on companies with processing trade manuals. Additionally, with the industrial shift, many copper semis enterprises are expanding their overseas presence. Currently, overseas long-term contract prices are higher than the actual spot order levels in 2024, leading to low acceptance by domestic enterprises. It is expected that the import volume of non-registered sources will further increase in 2025.